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Agricultural products continue to fluctuate weakly Chemicals cautious callback

Yesterday, raw sugar oscillated slightly, boosted by expectations of a decline in Brazilian sugar production. The main contract hit a maximum of 14.77 cents per pound, the lowest fell to 14.54 cents per pound, the final closing price rose 0.41%, to close at 14.76 cents per pound. Sugar production in the main sugarcane production area in south-central Brazil is expected to fall to a three-year low in the next year. The lack of replantation will reduce sugarcane yields and ethanol production will increase. Kingsman estimates that Brazil's central and southern 2018-19 sugar production will be 33.99 million tons. More than 90% of the country’s Tang sugar production in Central and South-Eastern Brazil. This level of sugar production means 2.1 million tons year-on-year decline, and will be the lowest level since production of 31.22 million tons in 2015-16. Correspondingly, the news of the State Reserve Bank's dumping and stockpiling is gradually being digested by the market. Although the sugar price fell again during the day, it regained lost ground in the afternoon close. With reference to the experience of other varieties, we believe that the dumping of stocks will not affect the mid-term trend of the market. For short- and medium-term investors can wait for prices to stabilize, buy 1801 contracts on dips. In the case of option investment, the spot merchant can carry out the standby option portfolio operation of rolling down the short-lived call option on the basis of holding the spot price in the short term. In the next 1-2 years, the operation of the standby option portfolio can be performed. As an intensifier of cash proceeds, it is also possible for value investors to buy 6300 to 6400 strike-to-value call options, wait for the rise in the price of sugar to make the value option real, and then close the position. Earlier low exercise call options and continue to buy a new round of out-of-the-money call options (call options with strike prices of 6500 or 6600), and gradually take profit when sugar prices reach 6600 yuan/ton or more.


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